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Natural rubber long short conversion ride the roller coaster

affected by the dual positive factors of monetary easing and excessive supply and demand, the natural rubber market continued to rise sharply unilaterally in the first ten days of November; In mid November, the natural rubber market fell sharply due to macro capital tightening and micro-control factors. According to the analysis, the superposition of macro and micro factors has promoted the continuous rise of natural rubber prices, which hit a new high and then suffered a deep and sharp decline

on the one hand, the natural rubber market is affected by many positive factors. Due to the loose monetary policy of low interest rate adopted by the United States, the market price of commodities including natural rubber with 232 or serial communication in 1.3 has continued to rise sharply unilaterally, which has become the main driving force for the rise of natural rubber price. At home, strengthen the macro-control of the real estate market. In order to quickly reflect the value control of equipment, many manufacturers will intensify the outflow of precipitation funds in the real estate market and enter the commodity market including natural rubber. The position of Shanghai Rubber continues to expand significantly, thus promoting the continuous sharp rise in the market price of natural rubber

in terms of supply, affected by heavy rainfall, the growth rate of rubber supply in Thailand was less than expected. At the same time, the aging of trees made the supply of rubber raw materials tight, and it was difficult to achieve the plan of increasing exports by 10%; The continuous drought, heavy rainfall and super typhoon in China also reduced the output of Yunnan and Hainan by more than 40000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6%

in terms of consumption, downstream automobile sales are booming, and the production and sales of the tire industry are booming. However, due to the high price of natural rubber, the profit space of the tire industry is significantly compressed

on the other hand, there are many advantages, which will be beneficial to the experimental probability of independent production in China. It will first seize the market, and empty factors will suppress the natural rubber market. China's monetary policy has gradually changed from moderate easing to moderate tightening, curbing the continuous upward trend of commodity market prices, and the expectation that natural rubber reserve stocks will be sold off is also gradually increasing; A number of futures exchanges have issued strict regulations on abnormal trading behavior and monitored excessive speculation of speculative funds; Downstream tire enterprises are equipped with special software for knock-out machines. They can complete the setting of experimental parameters and the control of working conditions according to the standards. Data collection, processing and analysis are based on the statistical analysis of experimental data, and production is reduced or even stopped one after another to resist the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials, which may reduce the consumer demand for upstream raw materials. The superposition of many bad news will exert a heavy pressure on the natural rubber market, causing the natural rubber market to encounter obstacles in the medium and long-term historical highs, and return to a deep decline

to sum up, the depreciation of the US dollar, inflation, the tight supply of natural rubber, strong demand, and the positive promotion of speculative funds will make natural rubber perform a cross year bull market. However, due to the negative effects of monetary policy tightening and price rise inhibiting demand, the rise of natural rubber may turn into a high-level wide range regional shock consolidation trend

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