The hottest steel industry has a good half year pe

2022-09-20
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The iron and steel industry has a good performance in half a year, and profit differentiation will become the main theme

editor's note: at present, some companies have shown good performance. According to the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, Baosteel Group achieved a profit of 28.664 billion yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of 28.5% year-on-year. A number of listed steel companies also announced a pre increase in performance in the first half of this year

although the major steel listed companies will announce the first half results in mid August, some companies have shown good performance at present. According to the information from China Iron and Steel Industry Association, Baosteel Group achieved a profit of 28.664 billion yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of 28% year-on-year. The effective supply shortage is still serious A number of steel listed companies also announced a pre increase in performance in the first half of the year

however, the industry still has different views on its trend in the second half of the year

liubaoyao of GF Securities believes that the release of some new production capacity in the first half of the year by Angang and WISCO after reorganization and merger is one of the reasons for the good performance of Listed Companies in the first half of the year. In addition, it is also related to the large increase in the domestic steel market price. Hu Hao of Zhongyuan Securities pointed out that listed companies adhere to product structure adjustment, establish a demand-oriented and rapid response marketing model, and timely adjust steel production is also one of the reasons

the mechanical property test items of plastics are relatively simple. 1 Zhou xizeng, a senior analyst at CITIC Securities, believes that "the profit growth rate of domestic steel listed companies in the first half of the year should be 30% - 40%, and the growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be less than that in the first half of the year, but it is not as pessimistic as market speculation."

he said that the good performance of domestic steel listed companies in the first half of the year was not driven by demand growth, but by weak supply

according to the calculation of CITIC Securities research team, the post disaster reconstruction in the second half of the year will drive the total domestic steel demand to increase by 1%-1.5%; Although the export situation in the second half of the year will not rise faster than that at present, it is slightly better than that in January this year; Since the end of last year, the national policy of energy conservation, emission reduction and elimination of backward has been implemented, and its effect will be cumulative in the second half of the year; Because some steel enterprises are worried about the economic downturn, the inventory of some enterprises is small at present

compared with analysts' predictions, the analysis of China Iron and steel industry association is slightly different. Shan Shanghua, Secretary General of the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, previously analyzed that since a series of new production capacities such as Bayuquan, Hangang new area and Caofeidian of Jingtang Iron and steel were put into operation in the second half of the year, if the trend of total steel volume growth was further developed, China's aluminum alloy automobile plate consumption in 2016 was only 72000 tons, and the total crude steel production in the first half of the year would be significantly increased

Luo Bingsheng, executive vice president of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, believes that the factors affecting the domestic market in the second half of the year are: first, GDP, fixed investment and total export volume may be lower than that in the first half of the year, and the demand for crude steel may decrease. 2、 Steel exports fell by 35% year-on-year in the first half of the year. If (3) Poisson's ratio of steel exports in the second half of the year is controlled, some steel will be sold to the domestic market, but it is not clear whether the total steel production in the second half of the year will increase significantly. In this case, demand will decrease, exports will decrease, and domestic output will increase. If these three factors are concentrated together, the domestic market may be oversupplied, causing price fluctuations

according to the data from China Iron and Steel Industry Association, the average manufacturing cost of steel-making pig iron in large and medium-sized steel production enterprises increased by 57.57% in the first half of this year (up 70.21% year-on-year in June). At present, the cost of raw materials and fuels accounts for nearly 80% of the cost of steel refining. The more intuitive data is that in the first half of this year, China's pig iron production increased by 7.89%, of which key enterprises increased by 9.69%, while local small and medium-sized enterprises increased by only 2.44%. The territory and profits of small and medium-sized enterprises are shrinking

Hu Hao believes that the macro environment of tight currency leads to the differentiation of demand for different steel varieties, and the price of raw materials continues to rise, so profit differentiation will become the main theme. Companies with high raw materials, M & A opportunities and value-added products will have obvious advantages

Luo Bingsheng also said that due to the current profitability of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises, it is still feasible for these enterprises to obtain loans from banks, while small and medium-sized enterprises have been in the state of shutdown or semi shutdown in the face of the sharp rise in the prices of iron ore, coking coal, coke, electricity and freight, the sharp rise in costs and the squeeze of capital turnover

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