In the hottest AI era, half of the people in the a

2022-08-15
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In the era of artificial intelligence, will half of the people in the automotive industry lose their jobs

at present, the most fashionable direction of the automotive industry is naturally new energy and autonomous driving. It is expected that l4~l5 automatic driving will be realized in 5-10 years, and it should be popularized in 10-20 years. At present, the business model of shared travel in the automotive industry is not very mature, but the prospect is still very good. How about the combination of the two

advantages of the combination of autonomous driving and car sharing

once autonomous driving and car sharing are popularized in the future, the cost advantage will become very obvious

first of all, with the maturity of automatic driving technology, the time cost of drivers has been eliminated, which is much lower than the current taxi cost. Secondly, under the long-standing mode of car sharing business, the cost of car sharing business is much lower than that of current private cars because it does not need to pay car maintenance fees and insurance premiums with the growth rate falling by 2.5 percentage points. In addition, car sharing with mature autonomous driving technology will no longer require a driver's license. In China, the number of people with car driving licenses accounts for less than one third of the total population, with only 342million people. Under the new mode, the driver's license will not be required, and the real zero threshold will be achieved. Finally, due to the realization of driverless driving, passengers' time has also been liberated, and they can rest and have fun in the car. After arriving at the destination, you don't have to bother to find a parking space to park, which also improves the user experience

after the new trend strikes, what effects need to be vigilant

when the trend of driverless and sharing comes, there will be the following effects and trends:

1 The decline of new car sales

car sharing will improve the utilization rate of cars. Although limited by the objective laws of travel (more vehicle demand in peak hours and less vehicle demand in non peak hours) and the traffic congestion caused by limited road resources, the utilization rate of shared cars will not be very high. Considering the better route planning ability and the promotion of windmills brought by the v2x technology of car connect in the future, as well as the gradual popularization of flexible working system and SOHO, the utilization rate of cars will still be higher than that at present. This will reduce the demand for vehicles in the market, and the corresponding car sales will also fall

2. Will ownership of cars no longer matter

with the advent of the era of car sharing, cars will be owned by operating companies, and individuals only have the right to use them, without ownership, which makes cars have part of the nature of "public goods". As a result, cars will no longer be "status goods". After all, who cares whether the interior of the subway/bus/taxi is beautiful, whether it is leather seats, and whether there is a panoramic sunroof? (it is worth mentioning that some people will still choose to own private cars out of old ideas or insensitive to costs, so the diversified demand will continue to exist to a certain extent, but it is not the mainstream.)

3. Leading industry of car sharing operation platform

since car manufacturers will no longer directly sell cars to end customers, they will be uniformly purchased by the operators of the shared platform. For mass procurement, its characteristic is extremely sensitive to cost. The automobile industry is the most prone to scale effect. The larger the scale of a single product, the lower the cost. At that time, several automobile manufacturers in the automobile industry will get most orders because of their good scale effect and great cost advantage. Other manufacturers will struggle to survive because they have few orders

under the new trend, crises and opportunities within the industry

under the new trend of autonomous driving and car sharing, automobile practitioners in the new pattern will face unprecedented crises and opportunities

since the automotive industry will be dominated by shared operation platforms in the future, it will obviously be very difficult for automobile manufacturers to position themselves only in automobile manufacturing. Whoever becomes the operation platform can dominate the competition in the future

for the employees of automobile manufacturers and parts suppliers, the situation will be divided into two kinds. Software talents will become hot scarce talents. Take Tesla as an example, its software coders and other personnel account for a very high proportion of the total employees. Hardware personnel, such as front-line manufacturing workers and chassis adjustment personnel, will face a large number of unemployment due to the improvement of automation level in the future

for automotive development engineers, due to the simplification of Automotive Structure & the simplification of demand, there will be no need to develop many models, naturally, there will be no need for so many people, and a large number of automotive development engineers will also face unemployment. This situation will also occur among parts suppliers, forming a butterfly effect and affecting the whole industry

for car dealers and salespeople, due to the combination of autonomous driving and car sharing (units: Provincial Department of economy and information technology, Provincial Department of science and technology, and provincial market supervision bureau), the maintenance of vehicles will be more centralized in the future, and the current profit cow of 4S stores, the maintenance sector, will shrink significantly. Many front-line sales and maintenance personnel will also face unemployment pressure

fortunately, these trends mentioned above are only predictions. As for when it will come, no one can be sure. It may be a few years or decades. As an automobile practitioner, only by constantly learning new knowledge and meeting new challenges can we occupy a place in the future competition. Knowledge is updated too quickly. If you still have old thinking, experience and methods, and don't continue to learn, there will be no way to go. Never before has self-education and learning become so important as now. Isn't it

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