Most popular Singapore shell butadiene force majeu

2022-07-27
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Singapore shell butadiene force majeure promotes product price

event:

on September 29, Singapore shell announced Force Majeure for its maoguangdao basic petrochemical product plant. The plant suffering from force majeure this time is the 960000 T/a ethylene plant, including the 155000 T/a butadiene unit. The plant was shut down on September 27, pushing the butadiene price up by $200/T per week

key investment points:

butadiene is mainly used to produce synthetic rubber, etc., and the domestic output has picked up this year

a small amount of domestic butadiene is imported, and Singapore shell's force majeure drives up the price of domestic products

statistics show that the apparent consumption of butadiene in China has shown an overall growth trend in recent years. Except for self-produced butadiene, it has been imported to varying degrees over the years, accounting for between 7.2% and 13.5%. The force majeure of shell Singapore butadiene plant caused tight supply in the Asian butadiene market. As of September 30, the CFR price of butadiene in Northeast Asia was $1350~1410/ton, up $200/ton in the week; According to the data of ICIS, compared with the price on August 5, the price of butadiene increased by 405 US dollars/ton. The external price drives the price increase of domestic products. Compared with the average price of butadiene in August, the domestic price has increased by 4400 yuan/ton, and the product profitability has been greatly enhanced. In addition, Thailand's BST 140000 ton butadiene plant will enter routine maintenance in mid November. Under the situation of tight supply, we believe that ding'er will actively enter emerging markets represented by Brazil, Russia, India and China in the future; The price of alkene in the planned diagnostic business market is expected to rise further

for butadiene production, the naphtha cracking method of this kind of equipment is mainly selected based on the data characteristics of people's daily demand testing. It is a by-product of oil refining, and the unit start-up is difficult to improve due to the impact of refining and chemical start-up

butadiene is mainly produced by naphtha cracking, which is usually a by-product of oil refining enterprises, accounting for only 4%

although there is excess capacity of domestic butadiene, under the circumstances of excess domestic refining capacity and sluggish demand growth of refined oil, we believe that refineries cannot increase unit load to increase by-product production, so it is unlikely that domestic butadiene will increase production significantly to suppress butadiene prices

it is recommended to pay attention to Qi Xiang Tengda

Qixiang Tengda has a 10000 ton butene oxidative dehydrogenation to butadiene unit according to the above standards and the requirements for experimental machines. The production area is close to the main refinery, and it is easy to obtain rich C4 resources. According to our calculation, for every 1000 yuan increase in butadiene price, the EPS of the company will increase by 0.06 yuan, which is more flexible

risk warning

butadiene price is difficult to maintain

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